Tax Policies for Housing Energy Efficiency in Italy: A Risk Analysis Model for Energy Service Companies

The Superbonus is an Italian tax relief policy aimed at encouraging residential buildings’ energy and seismic efficiency. Only the energy part of the legislation is analyzed here. The tax deductions of the Superbonus exceed the nominal value of the project, making the interventions convenient even for economically disadvantaged citizens and small construction companies. However, the measure has only found wide diffusion in single-family housing, while it proceeds more slowly for multi-family buildings, where procedural complexities greatly amplify the risk of the financial failure of projects. The purpose of the paper is to analyze how urban planning and technical and administrative problems affect the Return on Investment (ROI) when the Superbonus is applied to multi-unit buildings. Therefore, a financial risk analysis is conducted from the perspective of an ordinary Energy Service Company (ESCo), which assumes the burden of carrying out energy efficiency measures. The property considered has all the requirements of an ordinary multi-family building for which the Superbonus is generally used. The works considered are also those carried out most frequently. The study shows that only three out of five energy interventions are financially sustainable. This result is in line with the data provided by the Italian Revenue Agency.