Climate and the limits of permafrost: a zonal analysis

Abstract This paper defines the climatic and environmental conditions that determine the limits and continuity of permafrost occurrence, in the Canadian context. The analysis utilizes a functional model that links air, surface and permafrost temperature through seasonal surface transfer functions and subsurface thermal properties. The temperature of permafrost (TTOP) results from the interplay between the air temperature, the nival (snow) offset and the thermal offset. These offset values vary systematically and geographically with freezing and thawing indices, snow cover conditions and ground thermal properties. These effects are analysed by calculating offset and TTOP values using Canadian climate station data for air temperature and snowfall. Whilst permafrost is ultimately a climatic phenomenon, the ground thermal conductivity ratio, via the thermal offset, is shown to be the critical factor in determining the southernmost extent of (discontinuous) permafrost. In contrast, snow cover, via the nival offset, is the critical factor in determining the northern limit of discontinuous permafrost (i.e. southern limit of continuous permafrost). Calculated TTOP values increase gradually southwards towards the limit of permafrost occurrence, as the effect of a rising mean annual air temperature (MAAT) is counteracted by an increasing thermal offset. This results in a diffuse geographical transition in the disappearance of permafrost. In contrast, there is a more abrupt transition to continuous permafrost at the northern limit of the discontinuous zone, associated with geographical changes in snow cover and the associated nival offset. The transition from discontinuous to continuous permafrost occurs between a MAAT of −6° to −8°C. This may explain the air temperature limit for continuous permafrost cited by previous authors. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.