Permafrost monitoring and detection of climate change

Ground temperature monitoring has been proposed as a means of detecting climate change in permafrost regions, although it is well known that the relationship is not simple. This paper presents a functional model of the permafrost-climate relationship, which accommodates the geographical variations of climatic, surface and soil factors that control ground thermal regime. The model is used to analyse the impacts of climate change on ground temperatures and to assess the design and interpretation of ground temperature monitoring programs. The model suggests that lithologic conditions form the primary local influence on permafrost temperatures, followed by snowcover and vegetation. Results using the model suggest that simple monitoring of active layer depth does not provide a reliable indicator of changes in permafrost temperature conditions, and that monitoring at exposed bedrock sites will produce the most direct signal of climate change on the ground thermal regime. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.