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The results of an investigation into the use of theoretical models for estimating the proportion, “c”, of patients cured after treatment for carcinoma of the breast are presented. The difficulties of using a lognormal or an exponential model are discussed, and it is suggested that a better method of estimating “c” is to assume that the probability of dying from cancer decreases exponentially with increasing time after treatment. The “Extrapolated Actuarial” model, based on this assumption, is shown to be a good fit to some known survival data having a 20-year follow up, and at the same time the computations involved in its application are relatively simple. Full details are given of the method of calculation.
J. L. Haybittle (Sun,) studied this question.