Head Injury and Long-term Mortality Risk in Community-Dwelling Adults

Importance: Head injury is associated with significant short-term morbidity and mortality. Research regarding the implications of head injury for long-term survival in community-dwelling adults remains limited. Objective: To evaluate the association of head injury with long-term all-cause mortality risk among community-dwelling adults, with consideration of head injury frequency and severity. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included participants with and without head injury in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, an ongoing prospective cohort study with follow-up from 1987 through 2019 in 4 US communities in Minnesota, Maryland, North Carolina, and Mississippi. Of 15 792 ARIC participants initially enrolled, 1957 were ineligible due to self-reported head injury at baseline; 103 participants not of Black or White race and Black participants at the Minnesota and Maryland field centers were excluded due to race-site aliasing; and an additional 695 participants with missing head injury date or covariate data were excluded, resulting in 13 037 eligible participants. Exposures: Head injury frequency and severity, as defined via self-report in response to interview questions and via hospital-based International Classification of Diseases diagnostic codes (with head injury severity defined in the subset of head injury cases identified using these codes). Head injury was analyzed as a time-varying exposure. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality was ascertained via linkage to the National Death Index. Data were analyzed between August 5, 2021, and October 23, 2022. Results: More than one-half of participants were female (57.7%; 42.3% men), 27.9% were Black (72.1% White), and the median age at baseline was 54 years (IQR, 49-59 years). Median follow-up time was 27.0 years (IQR, 17.6-30.5 years). Head injuries occurred among 2402 participants (18.4%), most of which were classified as mild. The hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality among individuals with head injury was 1.99 (95% CI, 1.88-2.11) compared with those with no head injury, with evidence of a dose-dependent association with head injury frequency (1 head injury: HR, 1.66 95% CI, 1.56-1.77; 2 or more head injuries: HR, 2.11 95% CI, 1.89-2.37) and severity (mild: HR, 2.16 95% CI, 2.01-2.31; moderate, severe, or penetrating: HR, 2.87 95% CI, 2.55-3.22). Estimates were similar by sex and race, with attenuated associations among individuals aged 54 years or older at baseline. Conclusions and Relevance: In this community-based cohort with more than 3 decades of longitudinal follow-up, head injury was associated with decreased long-term survival time in a dose-dependent manner, underscoring the importance of measures aimed at prevention and clinical interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality due to head injury.