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Abstract The COVID-19 infections in Pakistan are spreading at an exponential rate and a point may soon be reached where rigorous prevention measures would need to be adopted. Mathematical models can help define the scale of an epidemic and the rate at which an infection can spread in a community. We used an SIR model to predict the magnitude of the COVID-19 epidemic in Pakistan and compared the numbers with the reported cases on the national database. Our results indicate that Pakistan could hit peak number of infectious cases on May 26th, 2020 and by June 24th, 2020, 90% of the population will have become infected with the virus if policy interventions seeking to curb this infection are not adopted aggressively.
Syed et al. (Mon,) studied this question.