The Dogs That Didn’t Bark

Much of the scholarship seeking to understand why Donetsk and Luhansk succumbed to separatist takeovers in 2014, while other parts of eastern Ukraine did not, has focused on popular sentiment and economic exposure to Russia as explanatory variables. However, closer examination suggests that these factors are insufficient to explain why the central state was able to maintain or reassert control everywhere except the Donbas region. This paper argues that the success or failure of separatist movements across eastern Ukraine is best understood with reference to the preferences and actions of local political and economic elites.