What question did this study set out to answer?

To perform a statistical analysis of KOKU intervals and their correlation with gold returns based on historical data.

May 25, 2026Open Access

KOKU Interval Analysis: Complete Historical Dataset 2019–2026 — Statistical Structure of IceCube GOLD-Event Silence Intervals and Gold Market Co-Movement

Key Points

To perform a statistical analysis of KOKU intervals and their correlation with gold returns based on historical data.
Analyzed 54 KOKU intervals from IceCube GOLD-event dataset covering June 2019 to December 2025.
Calculated mean, standard deviation, and correlation of KOKU signalness with gold returns.
Identified non-monotonic patterns in 7-day gold returns stratified by KOKU intervals.
Mean KOKU value was 43.8 days with a right-skewed distribution and weak positive correlation (r=+0.127).
Observed a primary anomaly in the 31-60 day KOKU interval with only +0.49% returns, contrasting with gains in other intervals.
Current KOKU is at 164 days, indicating a significant deviation, with predictions for the CSS Event Window suggesting returns between +1.5% to +2.1%.

Abstract

Complete statistical analysis of KOKU intervals (N=54) derived from the IceCube GOLD-event dataset (June 2019–December 2025, N=55 events). Key findings: Mean KOKU=43.8 days, SD=47.0, right-skewed distribution. Weak positive KOKU-signalness correlation (r=+0.127). KOKU-stratified 7-day gold returns reveal a non-monotonic pattern: 0-30d (+2.19%), 31-60d (+0.49%), 61-100d (+1.93%), >100d (+1.70%). The 31-60 day dip is identified as the primary unresolved anomaly. Current KOKU=164 days (z=+2.56σ, P=2.4% under Poisson null, 1-in-42 event). Historical comparators at KOKU 182-188 days produced +1.83% and +2.09% returns. Pre-registered central estimate for CSS Event Window (May 25-30, 2026): +1.5% to +2.1% (7-day window). Explicit limitations: N too small for definitive conclusions; 7-day window differs from established 72h finding; gold price regime confounding. Author note: the act of noticing that long silences felt different — a human observation preceding any statistical analysis — is retained as the origin of this research program.

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