The Second Generation of the California Urban Futures Model. Part 1: Model Logic and Theory

In this paper we explore the theory and logic behind the development of the second generation of the California urban futures model, a site-specific urban growth and simulation model. The second-generation model remedies three of the major shortcomings of the first generation. It substitutes a statistical model of urban land-use change, calibrated against historical experience, for an uncalibrated ‘developer-driven’ model. It includes multiple urban land uses (for example, single-family residential, apartments, retail and office, and industrial) and allows them to bid against each other for preferred sites. It allows previously developed sites to be redeveloped into different uses. Finally, in addition to simulating the spatial impacts of regulatory policies, it can also simulate the effects of major infrastructure investments such as highways and transit lines.