The Impact of Large-Scale Water Diversion Projects on the Water Supply Network: A Case Study in Southwest China

The uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources has consistently been one of the most significant limiting factors for social development in many regions. Furthermore, with the intensification of climate change, this inequality is progressively widening, posing a critical challenge to the sustainable development of human societies. The construction of large-scale water projects has become one of the crucial means to address the contradictions between water supply and demand. Thus, evaluating the functional aspects of water source network structures and systematically planning the layout of engineering measures in a scientifically reasonable manner are pressing issues that require urgent attention in current research efforts. Addressing this, our study takes the Erhai Lake basin and the surrounding areas in southwest China as the study area and combines landscape ecology and network analysis theory methods to propose a water supply network analysis method that takes into account both structure and node characteristics. Based on this methodology, we analyze the connectivity characteristics of water supply networks in the Erhai region under current (2020) and future (2035) planning scenarios. The results show that there were 215 nodes and 216 links in the water supply network of the Erhai Lake basin in 2020; with the implementation of a series of water conservancy projects, the planned 2035 water supply network will increase by 122 nodes and 163 links, and the connectivity of the regional water network will be significantly improved. Also, we identify some key nodes in the network, and the results show that the water supply network in 2035 will have obvious decentralization characteristics compared with that in 2020. And, based on the network degradation analysis, we find that with the implementation of engineering measures, the resilience of the water supply network will be significantly strengthened by 2035, with stronger risk tolerance. This study extends the quantitative representation of water source network characteristics, which can provide a useful reference for water network structure planning and optimization.