Does Trade Union Participation Increase Rural–Urban Migrant Workers’ Willingness of Homestead Withdrawal?

Enhancing the willingness of rural–urban migrant workers (RUMs) to pursue the withdrawal of rural homesteads is a key measure to deepen the reform of the rural land system and advance new-type urbanization. This study aims to examine the impact of trade union participation on RUMs’ willingness to withdraw from rural homesteads (WFRH). It further offers implications for improving trade union services and refining relevant institutional arrangements for homestead withdrawal. Based on valid questionnaire data from 1949 RUMs in Hefei, Anhui Province, China, analytical methods, including the ordered Probit model, Propensity Score Matching (PSM), and KHB model, are adopted for empirical analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: trade union participation significantly enhances RUMs’ willingness to WFRH. This conclusion remains robust after the replacement of explained variables, adjustment of econometric models, and use of the PSM method to correct for selection bias. Heterogeneity analysis based on an ordered probit model reveals that the impact of trade union participation on homestead withdrawal willingness is more pronounced among females, individuals under 45 years old, and those with a college degree or above. Mediation effect test based on the KHB model finds that urban identity and sense of social fairness play mediating roles between trade union participation and RUMs’ homestead withdrawal willingness. Trade union participation improves their withdrawal willingness by strengthening their urban identity and sense of social equity. Efforts should be made to enhance the willingness of RUMs to withdraw from homesteads by improving the service function system of “capacity cultivation + rights protection + emotional connection” of trade unions, expanding the effective coverage of trade union organizations, promoting the collaborative linkage between “trade unions and governments”, and strengthening the full process service support for homestead withdrawal. The study conclusions help optimize the allocation of rural land resources and advance the integration of urban and rural development.