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Abstract Managed grazing is the most widespread land use globally, and ongoing shifts in extensive livestock systems represent one of the most extensive agricultural land-use transformations. Yet, capturing local dynamics behind these changes at large scales remains challenging. We provide a fine-scale spatial and socio-ecological characterization of extensive livestock trends in Spain, focusing on meat-oriented sheep—the main extensively managed livestock type. Using a highly detailed agricultural database, we mapped sheep numbers from 2007 to 2021 at ∼5 km resolution, identifying areas of decline (destocking) and increase, and examining their biophysical and socio-economic drivers. While national statistics report a net decrease of 4.1 million sheep (−28%) during the study period, our analysis reveals deeper reductions: areas hosting 75% of the stock and covering 42% of Spain halved their numbers, from 11.6 to 5.4 million. This 6.2 million-head loss was partly offset by gains of 2.1 million in regions occupying 21.5% of the land. Spatial patterns show widespread destocking coexisting with localized increases, creating a heterogeneous mosaic of diverging trends. Our analyses indicate that declines occurred mainly in traditional grazing strongholds, whereas increases concentrated in areas with limited prior sheep presence and that might be linked to intensification management practices. Our fine-scale analysis uncovers more severe reductions than suggested by national statistics, highlighting that rangeland abandonment may be more widespread than recognized and underscoring the risk of underestimating the magnitude of livestock transformations and their ecological consequences.
Cruz-Amo et al. (Wed,) studied this question.