The 2007 Estimates for People at Risk for and Living With HIV in China: Progress and Challenges

OBJECTIVE: To present the methods used for the 2007 estimates for the number of people at risk for and infected with HIV. DESIGN: : Estimation work took place throughout 2007, led by the National Center for AIDS and Sexually Transmitted Disease Control and Prevention in collaboration with United Nations AIDS and the World Health Organization. METHODS: The workbook method was used to process prefecture and county-level surveillance data to generate HIV prevalence by risk group for each prefecture, which was in turn imported into the spectrum model to generate estimates of new infections and HIV-related deaths. RESULTS: The working group estimated that as of 2007, there were 700,000 people living with HIV/AIDS in China, with 50,000 new infections and 20,000 HIV-related deaths in that year. Injection drug use and sexual contact are still primary modes of HIV transmission, with heterosexual contact quickly becoming the dominant route, making up 44.7% of new infections in 2007. The HIV/AIDS epidemic is still highly concentrated in certain areas, with wide variation in prevalence across regions. CONCLUSIONS: The 2007 estimates are based on the most accurate and local-level data available to date, including case reports, sentinel surveillance data, results from mass screening of key target groups, and special epidemiological studies.