Sense of belonging in higher education students: an Australian longitudinal study from 2013 to 2019

Student sense of belonging is a current challenge to higher education providers, with consistently declining ratings in national surveys. For universities globally, this is a concern linked to student attrition, student satisfaction, and student success. Importantly, low sense of belonging is typically associated with non-traditional learners, and building strategies to solve this challenge is essential for institutions to build equitable learning environments. This study seeks to understand the causal factors that predict when a student will belong using longitudinal data. Using the Australian national student experience survey data (n = 1,159,768 undergraduate and postgraduate students between 2013 and 2019), this study examines the predictors of a sense of belonging testing the accuracy of four machine learning models. The findings indicate overall educational experience, connection to students outside of class, and support to settle were key predictors, with skill development and curriculum supports a lesser predictor of a sense of belonging. Interestingly, identity and individual differences ratings seemed to have less importance than student experience factors. Implications for higher education policy developers and curriculum writers are considered.