Absolute and Restrictive Deterrence in a Panel of Youth: Explaining the Onset, Persistence/Desistance, and Frequency of Delinquent Offending

Toward both a theoretically and empirically more sensitive treatment of deterrence, this paper distinguishes absolute from restrictive deterrence and shows these concepts to be central elements of a rational choice and criminal career perspective of offending. Empirical data on four minor delinquent offenses from a panel of high school students (N = 1,478) indicate that perceptions of punishment severity were unrelated to both absolute and restrictive deterrence. There was some support for the notion that the perceived certainty of punishment was an effective absolute deterrent, at least as it pertains to the onset of delinquency. Finally, an examination of a censored regression model (tobit) indicated that sanction risk was an important, but not the most important, factor in explaining the frequency of involvement in the minor delinquent acts.