Predicting the Efficacy of Future Training Programs Using Past Experiences

Consider a government contemplating the implementation of a training or other social assistance program. The decision to implement the program depends on the assessment of its likely e ectiveness. Often policy makers have access to data from a similar program implemented in an earlier time period or in another locality. The question arises as to how these data might be used to assess the contemplated program's likely e cacy. This situation is not uncommon. For example, the U.S. federal government's primary program for job training, the Job Training Partnership Act JTPA, is designed and administered at the local level. Thus, policy makers may wish to evaluate di erences in the e ectiveness of the local programs. In addition, the recent federal reforms to the U.S. welfare system have encouraged the development of state and local program diversity, both in the services clients receive, and in the target populations. Increasingly, states and local authorities who administer their own programs, seek to use information from other programs, conducted in the past or in other locations, to assess the likely impacts and cost-e ectiveness of these programs.