Predictors of Death and Vascular Events in the Elderly

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The goal of the present study was to identify risk factors for vascular disease in the elderly. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study of control subjects from a population-based study of stroke in Perth, Western Australia, that was completed in 1989 to 1990 and used record linkage and a survey of survivors to identify deaths and nonfatal vascular events. Data validated through reference to medical records were analyzed with the use of Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Follow-up for the 931 subjects was 88% complete. By June 24, 1994, 198 (24%) of the subjects had died (96 from vascular disease), and there had been 45 nonfatal strokes or myocardial infarctions. The hazard ratio for diabetes exceeded 2.0 for all end points, whereas the consumption of meat >4 times weekly was associated with a reduction in risk of </=30%. In most models, female sex and consumption of alcohol were associated with reduced risks, whereas previous myocardial infarction was linked to an increase in risk. CONCLUSIONS: There are only limited associations between lifestyle and major vascular illness in old age. Effective health promotion activities in early and middle life may be the key to a longer and healthier old age.