A Predictive Model of Sequential Iteration in Engineering Design

This paper presents a model describing sequential iteration, one of the fundamental solution processes experienced in complex engineering design projects. The model is based upon the design structure matrix representation and assumes that each individual design activity is of deterministic duration with probabilistic repetition, where the repeat probabilities are defined by the strength of the task coupling. Using the model, we are able to compute the expected duration of the iterative solution process, and to suggest an initial ordering of the coupled design tasks to minimize the expected duration. We conclude the paper with a discussion of limitations and several extensions to the sequential iteration model.