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Abstract Data from a random sample of 8,191 men and women selected in six U.S. cities and examined on three occasions over a 6-yr follow-up period were analyzed by longitudinal methods to describe the effects of smoking history and current smoking behavior on rate of loss of pulmonary function during adult life. Former smokers had age- and height-adjusted rates of decline (34.3 ml/yr for men and 29.6 ml/yr for women) comparable with those of never smokers (37.8 ml/yr for men and 29.0 ml/yr for women) but much smaller than those of continuing smokers (52.9 ml/yr for men and 38.0 ml/yr for women). The accelerated rate of loss of FEV1 among smokers depended linearly on the number of cigarettes smoked per day during the interval between examinations. The estimated increase in rate of loss associated with smoking was 12.6 ml/yr per pack/day for men and 7.2 ml/yr per pack/day for women. These longitudinal estimates of the effects of smoking were approximately 50% larger than estimates obtained from cross-sectional analysis of the initial pulmonary function examination. Men who started smoking had accelerated rates of loss (55.9 ml/yr) as did women (43.1 ml/yr). Smokers who stopped smoking between examinations had reduced declines (41.2 ml/yr for men and 28.7 ml/yr for women) compared with continuing smokers. The age-specific rates of loss suggest that the benefits of cessation may be greatest among the youngest smokers. The changes associated with starting or cessation of smoking were much smaller than those found in cross-sectional analyses of these data. In summary, cigarette smoking causes an accelerated annual loss of pulmonary function that may be underestimated by cross-sectional studies. Those who stop smoking will experience only a small recovery in pulmonary function level, but they will cease to lose pulmonary function at an accelerated rate.
Xu et al. (Sun,) studied this question.