The npt & the sources of nuclear restraint

Daedalus Winter 2010 The past decade has not been kind to the nuclear nonproliferation regime.1 Indeed, since the Treaty on the NonProliferation of Nuclear Weapons (npt) was extended inde1⁄2nitely in 1995, it has been subjected to a series of body blows, which have led many nonproliferation experts, policy-makers, and media pundits to prophesize an impending cascade or chain of nuclear weapons spread, as well as the possible demise of the npt as we currently know it. Implicit in many of these forecasts are assumptions about proliferation dynamics that are poorly informed by empirical research on past nuclear renunciation decisions. This essay draws upon this literature to assess the role the npt has played in promoting prior nuclear restraint. It also examines how evolving international developments may alter the future effectiveness of the npt as a proliferation constraint.