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Abstract The Mediterranean region has experienced a well-documented decline in precipitation over recent decades, yet the role of cloud regimes in shaping this trend remains underexplored. This study utilizes the ISCCP-H (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Weather States (WSs) classification to examine cloud regimes and their relationship with precipitation using TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data from 1998 to 2016. Cloud systems are categorized into eight distinct WSs, providing a physically grounded framework for assessing rainfall variability. The results indicate that deep convective (WS1) and frontal (WS2) regimes dominate precipitation patterns, with WS1 driving extreme rainfall and WS2 exhibiting the highest number of precipitation events. Long-term trends reveal that the observed decline in precipitation is primarily driven by a significant reduction in WS2-related precipitation frequency, particularly in moderate and heavy rainfall events, suggesting a decline in frontal system penetration. Additionally, a marked decrease in WS1 precipitation intensity signals a weakening of deep convective processes. These results are consistent with previous station-based and satellite studies reporting a widespread decline in Mediterranean precipitation, while extending them by attributing this decline to changes in precipitation characteristics within specific cloud regimes. This cloud-regime perspective offers a physically interpretable framework for assessing precipitation changes and for evaluating the representation of key precipitation-bearing regimes in climate models.
Konsta et al. (Mon,) studied this question.