Probabilistic Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Based on Diffusion Model

Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation is an important step in disaster prevention and mitigation. However, in the probability prediction of TC precipitation, traditional deep learning models are highly sensitive to initial conditions and can only provide deterministic forecasts, making it difficult to quantify uncertainty. In this study, we develop an AI-driven deep learning model based on diffusion models, incorporating historical data to reduce sensitivity to initial conditions and enhance precipitation distribution accuracy. Compared with traditional deep learning methods, this model outperforms other models in terms of the SSIM and PSNR for deterministic prediction of TC precipitation in 0–12 h. For probabilistic prediction, this model also achieves lower CRPS and Brier scores. Therefore, diffusion-based deep learning models not only show broad application prospects in TC-precipitation forecasting but also hold promise for providing probabilistic prediction methods for various disasters, enabling the widespread adoption of probabilistic forecasting across different prediction domains.