Coronary and extra-coronary artery calcium scores as predictors of cardiovascular events and mortality in chronic kidney disease stages 1–5: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Vascular calcification is a known risk factor for cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, since there is a lack of studies examining several arterial regions at a time, we aimed to evaluate the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality according to calcium scores in five major arterial sites. METHODS: This was a prospective study of 580 patients from the Copenhagen CKD Cohort. Multidetector computed tomography of the coronary and carotid arteries, the thoracic aorta, the abdominal aorta and the iliac arteries was used to determine vascular calcification at baseline. Calcium scores were divided into categories: 0, 1-100, 101-400 and >400. RESULTS: During the follow-up period of 4.1 years a total of 59 cardiovascular events and 64 all-cause deaths occurred. In Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia and smoking, only the coronary and carotid arteries, and the thoracic aorta were independent predictors of the designated endpoints. When examining the potential of calcification in the five arterial sites for predicting MACE, the difference in C-statistic was also most pronounced in these three sites, at 0.21 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16%-0.26%, P < .001, 0.26 (95% CI 0.22%-0.3%, P < .001) and 0.20 (95% CI 0.16%-0.24%, P < .001), respectively. This trend also applied to all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The overall results, including data on specificity, suggest that calcium scores of the coronary and carotid arteries have the most potential for identifying patients with CKD at high cardiovascular risk and for evaluating new therapies.