Creating New Traditions in Modern Chinese Populations: Aiming for Birth in the Year of the Dragon

The dragon appears every 12 years in the Chinese zodiac and the Dragon Year is considered favorable to new business marriages and births. In recent Dragon Years of 1976 and 1988 fertility rates surged among the Chinese in Taiwan Hong Kong especially in Singapore and Malaysia (24- 26%). However this phenomenon did not occur in the Peoples Republic of China and before 1976 such preference had not been found in any Chinese population. The Dragon Year baby boom seems to have stemmed from hazily defined folk beliefs. A field study was conducted in the fall of 1990 comparing Chinese of different social backgrounds from TAipei Taichung Hong Kong Guangzhou Penang and Singapore. Data including vital statistics were collected and Chinese and English language daily newspaper and periodicals were scanned. Demographic history between 1916-88 shows that before 1964 there were no Dragon Year preferences anywhere. By 1976 the Dragon Year crude birth rate (CBR) ranged from +16% in Taiwan to -13% in China. In 1988 the CBR was +25% in Singapore and Malaysia and -4% in China. Marital fertility was low in preindustrial China compared with Europe as apothecaries carried contraceptives sexual behavior in marriage was regulate and beliefs in zodiacal animals in astrology impacted births. In 1950 births fell among Chinese in Singapore in the ominous Year of the Tiger. There was also a fall in fertility during the 1986 Tiger Year in Singapore Malaysia Taiwan and Hong Kong. Zodiacal birth timing was possibly influences by the 1966 Japanese Year of the Fire Horse that cut fertility by 25% to forestall the birth of girls destined to murder their future husbands. Other explanations include the increase of birth cohorts owing to the exodus of refugees after the Communist takeover in China the resurgence of the economies and the adherence to tradition among emigre Chinese for preservation of Chinese identity.