The article examines Japan’s influence on the changing regional significance of the Taiwan issue amid growing tensions in East Asia and the intensification of U.S.–China rivalry. The subject of the study is not the history of unofficial Japanese–Taiwanese contacts, nor the modeling of a military scenario in the Taiwan Strait, but the ways in which Japan influences the multilateral transformation of the Taiwan issue. This transformation is understood not as a change in the legal nature of the Taiwan issue, but as its gradual inclusion in several interconnected security policy frameworks: U.S.–Japan alliance coordination, G7 multilateral formats, and Japan’s defense policy planning. The aim of the article is to identify the main channels of Japanese influence on this transformation and to show what risks it creates for regional security, including the security of the PRC. The methodological basis of the study includes the analysis of political documents, the analysis of alliance coordination mechanisms, the securitization approach, and institutional analysis. Taken together, these methods make it possible to trace how the Taiwan issue is incorporated into the U.S.–Japan alliance agenda, multilateral formats, and Japan’s defense policy planning, as well as to identify the regional security risks associated with this process. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the fact that Japan’s influence on the Taiwan issue is revealed through the changing political function of this issue in Japan’s foreign and defense policy. The article shows that, while Japan formally preserves the continuity of its post-1972 position, the Taiwan issue is increasingly gaining significance not only as a sensitive matter in Sino-Japanese relations, but also as an element of regional security, alliance interaction, and crisis planning. The article concludes that this transformation gradually moves the Taiwan issue beyond the framework of bilateral Sino-Japanese political control and strengthens its connection with the broader security architecture of East Asia. Particular attention is paid to the fact that this dynamic deepens the security dilemma, increases the risk of misinterpreting the intentions of the parties, and makes stable crisis communication mechanisms especially important.
Weijin Ran (Sun,) studied this question.