Sensitivity of water resource systems to climate variation

ABSTRACT The problem of the response of water resource systems to climate variations is stated. The importance of the sensitivity of the systems to such variations is demonstrated with respect to the stationarity of the mean and the extremes. A definition of moderate climate variation is adopted. Results of deterministic modelling of the influence of such a variation on streamflow are reported, in extreme conditions of arid and humid basins. The results are used in modelling the influence of climate variations on reservoir storage systems. The model indicates a considerable amplification of the effect of climate change on runoff and storage and emphasizes the importance of studies of sensitivity of water resource systems to climate variation.