Ukraine 2004: Informal Networks, Transformation of Social Capital and Coloured Revolutions

Abstract Since 2003, the phenomenon of ‘coloured revolutions’ has caused significant changes in post-soviet spaces, but a similar strategy – challenging an existing regime through mass protests – pursued in different countries has led to both successful and unsuccessful results. The success of the Orange revolution in Ukraine suggests that the outcome of a coloured revolution is directly correlated with the development of a country's social capital, whether formal or informal. The case of the civic campaign ‘PORA’ and its genesis and deployment indicates that the development of social capital before the events, although largely unnoticed and only informally organized, was decisive to the outcome of the events of November 2004. In turn, the Orange revolution has transformed the country, prompting a conversion of informal into formal social capital that is now active at the social and political levels. Notes For elaboration, see Juan Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation (Baltimore, MD and London: John Hopkins University Press, 1998). Florian Pichler and Claire Wallace, ‘Patterns of Formal and Informal Social Capital in Europe’, European Sociological Review, Vol.23, No.4 (2007), pp.423–36. ‘Fukuyama Says Ideas on Liberal Democracy “Misunderstood”’, Interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), 13 Oct. 2006, available at , accessed 10 Feb. 2009. See Sidney Tarrow, The New Transnational Activism (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005). Helmut Kurth and Iris Kempe (eds.), Presidential Election and Orange Revolution: Implications for Ukraine's Transition (Kiev: Zapovit, 2005); Taras Kuzio, ‘Ukraine's Orange Revolution. The Opposition's Road to Success’, Journal of Democracy, Vol.16, No.2 (2005), pp.117–30; Michael McFaul, ‘The Second Wave of Democratic Breakthroughs in the Post-Communist World: Comparing Serbia 2000, Georgia 2003, Ukraine 2004, and Kyrgyzstan 2005’, Danyliw/Jacyk Working Papers No.4 (Toronto: University of Toronto, 2005). Joerg Forbrig, Pavol Demeš and Robin Shepherd (eds.), Reclaiming Democracy: Civil Society and Electoral Change in Central and Eastern Europe (Washington, DC and Bratislava: German Marshall Fund, 2007); Taras Kuzio, ‘Democratic Breakthroughs and Revolutions in Five Post-Communist Countries: Comparative Perspectives on the Fourth Wave’, Demokratizatsiya, Vol.13, No.4 (2008), pp.491–517. Donnacha Ó Beacháin and Abel Polese ‘American Boots and Russian Vodka: External Factors on Coloured Revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan’, Totalitarismus und Demokratie, Vol.5, No.1 (2008), pp.84–116; Mark Bessinger, ‘Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena: The Diffusion of Bulldozer/Rose/Orange/Tulip Revolutions’, Perspective on Politics, Vol.5, No.2 (2007), pp.249–64. Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia and China (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979), p.4. See, for instance, Paul D'Anieri, ‘The Last Hurrah: The 2004 Elections and the Limits of Machine Politics’, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol.38, No.2 (2005), pp.231–50; also Taras Kuzio, ‘Ukraine's Orange Revolution. The Opposition's Road to Success’, Journal of Democracy, Vol.16, No.2 (2005), pp.117–30. The most complete description is probably Andrew Wilson, Ukraine's Orange Revolution (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006). In an edited volume, Åslund and McFaul and their collaborators explore different aspects of the Orange revolution: see Anders Åslund and Michael McFaul (eds.), Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough (Washington, DC: Carnegie, 2006); see in particular the chapters by Pavol Demeš and Joerg Forbrig and by Taras Kuzio. A more balanced account of the events in Ukraine is in Viatcheslav Avioutskii, Les révolutions de velours The Velvet Revolutions (Paris: Armand Colin, 2006) Another work worth mentioning is the description of the civic campaign PORA by some of the leading figures of the campaign Vlad Kaskiv, Iryna Chupryna and Yevhen Zolotarev, ‘It's Time! PORA and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine’, in Forbrig, Demeš and Shepherd (eds), Reclaiming Democracy, pp.127–51. John Foran, Taking Power: On the Origin of Third World Revolutions (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005). John Foran, Fragile Resistance: Social Transformation in Iran from 1500 to the Revolution (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1993). Foran, Taking Power, p.7. Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics, 2nd edn (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), pp.2–4. Ibid., pp.19–20. Margaret Keck and Kathryn Sikkink, Activists Beyond Borders: Advocacy Networks in International Politics (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1998). See the discussion in Graeme P. Herd, ‘Colorful Revolutions and the CIS: “Manufactured” Versus “Managed” Democracy?’, Problems of Postcommunism, Vol.52, No.2 (2005), pp.3–18. See James Scott, Weapons of the Weak: Everyday Forms of Peasant Resistance (New Haven, CT and London: Yale University Press, 1985). Foran, Taking Power, in particular, suggests that every revolution is unique. See Gene Sharp, The Politics of Nonviolent Action (Boston, MA: Porter Sargent, 1973); see also Albert Robertson, Civil Resistance in the East European and Soviet Revolutions (Boston, MA: Albert Einstein Institution, 1993). Valerie Bunce and Sharon L. Wolchik, ‘Favorable Conditions and Electoral Revolutions’, Journal of Democracy, Vol.17, No.4 (2006), pp.5–18; Simon Tordjman, ‘Surfing the Wave: Civil Society Development and Colour Revolutions’, Totalitarismus und Demokratie, Vol.5, No.1 (2008), pp.88–112. Abel Polese, ‘La corrente attitudine verso l'ecologia in Ucraina: il campo di lavoro “Futurum” in Crimea’ ‘The Current Ecologic Attitude in Ukraine: The Project “Futurum” in Crimea as a Case Study’, Gazzetta Ambiente, 2006, No.4, pp.49–65. Valerie Bunce, ‘Domestic Conditions and Democracy Promotion’, paper prepared for the Roundtable on Post-Communist Societies, US Department of State, Washington, DC, 18 May 2005. Pichler and Wallace, ‘Patterns of Formal and Informal Social Capital’. Sergei Rakhmanin, ‘Afterglow of the Passing Epoch’, Zerkalo nedeli, 1 April 2006. Scott, Weapons of the Weak. See Scott, Weapons of the Weak; Sherry Ortner, Anthropology and Social Theory (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 2006); Michel Foucault, The History of Sexuality, Part I: The Will to Knowledge (New York: Vintage Books, 1990; first published 1978); Raymond Williams, Marxism and Literature (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1977). Tarrow, The New Transnational Activism. Claudio Morrison, A Russian Factory Enters the Market Economy (London: Routledge, 2008). Mark Thompson, Democratic Revolutions (London: Routledge, 2003). Sergey Fomichov, ‘Russian Eco-Anarchism: An Interview with Sergey Fomichov’, 25 Jan. 2005, available at , accessed 20 Jan. 2007. Dissident, journalist and politician, Chornovil died in unclear circumstances after his car crashed into a truck. See Mark Beissinger, ‘How Nationalism Spread: Eastern Europe Adrift’, Social Research, Vol.63, No.1 (1996), pp.99–146; Tarrow, Power in Movement and The New Transnational Activism. They are also backed by Moroz and by Yuliya Tymoshenko (formerly of Hromada, then founder of the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc in 2001), by the communist leader Petro Simonenko, and timidly by the former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko (then founder of Nasha Ukraina in 2002). Taras Kuzio, ‘PORA Takes Two Different Paths’, Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol.2, No.23 (2005). Member of the Reform and Order party, then Yushchenko supporter in 2004 and one of the main organizers of the logistics in the Independence Square; he is at present one of the leaders of the civic movement Narodna samooborona. Olga Dmitricheva, Tatyana Silina and Sergei Rakhmanin, ‘Anatomiya dushi Maidana’ ‘Anatomy of the Soul of Maidan’, interview with Yuri Lutsenko, Taras Stetskiv and Vladimir Filenko, Zerkalo Nedeli, 11 Dec. 2004. Despite Yushchenko being against the creation of PORA, some politicians from Nasha Ukraina remained active and contributed to the development of the campaign. In November 2004 Roman Bezsmertnyi, one of the closest advisers to Yushchenko, led the coordination of the street protests, showing a change of attitude on the part of the party. Leader, from 1999 to 2004, of the main NGO coalition in Ukraine ‘Freedom of Choice’; he became leader of PORA in 2004 and is now adviser to the president of Ukraine. Inna Kolesnikova, ‘Interv'yu z Mikhailom Svistovchem’ ‘Interview with Michael Svistovich’, March 2005, available at , accessed 20 June 2008. Pavol Demeš and Joerg Forbrig, ‘PORA – It's Time for Democracy in Ukraine’, in Åslund and McFaul (eds.), Revolution in Orange, pp.85–102 (pp.91–2). Yellow PORA's argument is that PORA was a logo with no owner and it is not possible to ‘steal’ a common logo: see Elias Fenira, Les mouvements de jeunes dans la transition démocratique de l'Ukraine Youth Movements in the Democratic Transition in Ukraine, MA thesis, Université Robert Schuman, Institut d'études politiques de Strasbourg, June 2006. Margaret Strijbosch, ‘Ukraine: The Resistance Will Not Stop’, Radio Netherlands, 25 November 2004, available at , accessed 10 Feb. 2009. , accessed 10 Feb. 2009. Socialist MP and main inspiration of the Kiev protests in 2004; in 2006 he left the Socialist Party, disappointed by the attitude of its leader, and created a civic movement Narodna samooborona, then registered it as a political party and joined the Nasha Ukraina bloc for the 2007 elections. Those are the words of Aleksandar Maric during an interview with Milos Krivokapic: see Milos Krivokapic, ‘Les faiseurs des révolutions: entretien avec Aleksandar Maric’ ‘The Revolution Makers: Interview with Aleksandar Maric’, Politique Internationale, No.106 (2005), available at , accessed 22 June 2008. The OK ’98 civic campaign was a non-party NGO initiative set up in Slovakia to ensure free and fair parliamentary and local elections in 1998. Yuri Lutsenko (Socialist Party), Volodymir Filenko and Taras Stetskiv (Reform and Order, Nasha Ukraina bloc). Those differences had not been noted even by some of the activists until it was announced that the two PORA were joining: see Fenira, Les mouvements de jeunes. Kolesnikova, ‘Interv'yu z Mikhailom Svistovchem’. Avioutskii, Les révolutions de velours. ‘Unknown’ means that their names were not known by people because they were not as popular as, say, Vlad Kaskiv or other activists. Kolesnikova, ‘Interv'yu z Mikhailom Svistovchem’. Fenira, Les mouvements de jeunes; Kolesnikova, ‘Interv'yu z Mikhailom Svistovchem’. Kolesnikova, ‘Interv'yu z Mikhailom Svistovchem’. Annexes to Vladislav Kaskiv, Iryna Chuparyna, Anastasiya Bezverkha and Yevhen Zolotarev, A Case Study of the Civic Campaign PORA and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, available at , copy provided by authors. Kolesnikova, ‘Interv'yu z Mikhailom Svistovchem’. Ibid. Kaskiv, Chupryna and Zolotariov, ‘It's Time!’. Krivokapic, ‘Les faiseurs des révolutions’. I use the quotation marks because, until August 2004, two parallel campaigns were carried out, and often the border between them was not well defined. Chto takoe Kuchmizm? What is Kuchmism?; the word ‘Kuchmizm’ is forged from the name of President Leonid Kuchma, and is here transliterated as Kuchmism. After which some of the ballot papers ‘were lost’ and the pro-government candidate won. See Bessinger, ‘Structure and Example’; Fenira, Les mouvements de jeunes; McFaul ‘The Second Wave of Democratic Breakthroughs’. See Kuzio, ‘PORA Takes Two Different Paths’. Kushch, literally ‘bush’, was a coordination centre for local PORA activities. Zerkalo nedeli mentions 76 while PORA internal documents show only 71; Kaskiv says 72 kushch, implying that even the leaders had no clear idea of the size and structure of the movement. Officially there are nine branches – 3 for planning, 3 for management and 3 for information – and 2 technical departments: fundraising and financial management: see Vladislav Kaskiv, Iryna Chuparyna, Anastasiya Bezverkha and Yevhen Zolotarev, A Case Study of the Civic Campaign PORA and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, Annex 5, available at ; copy provided by authors. Kaskiv, Chuparyna, Bezverkha and Zolotarev, A Case Study, Annexes 8a and 8b, available at ; copy provided by authors. The conversations are available in English in Wilson, Ukraine's Orange Revolution, Chapters 1 and 2. Quoted in Dmitricheva, Silina and Rakhmanin, ‘Anatomiya dushi Maidana’. The International Renaissance Foundation, created by George Soros, supports some projects of electoral monitoring with a 1.3-million dollar funding in its campaign ‘Promotion of the Fair and Open Election of 2004’: quoted in Iris Kempe and Iryna Solonenko, ‘International Orientation and Foreign Support’, in Kurth and Kempe, (eds.), Presidential Election and Orange Revolution, pp.109–148 (p.118). C.J. Chivers, ‘A Crackdown Averted: How Top Spies in Ukraine Changed the Nation's Path’, New York Times, 17 Jan. 2005; Taras Kuzio, ‘Did Ukraine's Secret Service Really Prevent Bloodshed During the Orange Revolution ?’, Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol.2, No16 (2005). Chivers, ‘A Crackdown Averted’. Quoted in Krivokapic, ‘Les faiseurs des révolutions’. Dmitricheva, Silina and Rakhmanin, ‘Anatomiya dushi Maidana’. Annex 8 to Kaskiv, Chuparyna, Bezverkha and Zolotariov, A Case Study of the Civic Campaign PORA. Celeste A. Wallander, ‘Ukrainian's Election: The Role of One International NGO’, CSIS Report, March 2005, available at , accessed 9 Feb. 2009. Personal communication with a geologist from Kriviy Rig. This enthusiasm touched everybody: Viktor Pinchuk, President Kuchma's son-in-law, after an evening in Maidan, declared that were he still a student he would also sleep in the tents. Personal communication with a PORA activist, 12 Oct. 2005. See ‘V Donbase govoryat’‘In the Donbas Basin they say’, Ukrainska Pravda, 26 Jan. 2005. Mark Almond, ‘The Price of People Power’, The Guardian, 7 Dec. 2004. Abel Polese, The Ukrainization of Odessa: Dynamics of Response of the Odessa Oblast to Post-Independence Ukrainization Policies, PhD thesis (unpublished), Free University of Brussels, 2009. Abel Polese, ‘Ukraine: The Future is Orange?’, Transitions On Line, 26 Nov. 2004, available at , accessed 12 Feb. 2009. Sergei Rakhmanin and Yuliya Mostovskaya, ‘Ukraina Partiynaya, chast II. “Nasha Ukraina”’‘Ukraine of the (Political) Parties, Part II “Nasha Ukraina”’, Zerkalo nedeli, 16 Feb. 2002. Dmitricheva, Silina and Rakhmanin, ‘Anatomiya dushi Maidana’. 5 Kanal, 20.00 broadcasting, 1 Dec. 2004. Quoted from interview with Zerkalo nedeli, in Dmitricheva, Silina and Rakhmanin, ‘Anatomiya dushi Maidana’. Kuzio, ‘PORA Takes Two Different Paths’. Among its members were Taras Stetskiv and Oles Donii, the latter a leading activist in the protests of 1990. Additional informationNotes on contributorsAbel Polese Abel Polese is a Marie Curie Fellow at the Institute of Geography of the University of Edinburgh. He has previously been a research fellow at the Hannah Arendt Institute, Dresden, and a visiting lecturer at the Institute of Theology and Liberal Arts of Odessa. Research for this study was funded through a Marie Curie Fellowship, ref. no. PIOF-GA-2008-219691.