Storm and Sentiment: Hurricane Helene's Political Impact in Western North Carolina

Historically, hurricanes have been shown to shape political behavior, with affected populations using their experiences to reward or punish incumbent parties and leaders at the ballot box. Hurricane Helene’s landfall in September 2024 wreaked unprecedented devastation across western North Carolina (WNC), becoming the third most deadly modern hurricane in U.S. history. A month after Hurricane Helene, the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election was held, and WNC counties experienced anomalous partisan margin shifts compared to state and national trends; the drivers of this divergence remain unclear and contested. This study, based on a survey of residents in the most impacted counties, shows that affected residents largely did not alter their voting behavior, despite many reporting that the disaster and response affected their political perceptions. The results highlight that individuals respond in various ways to disasters; responses depend on perceptions of media coverage and social rhetoric, how they attribute blame or credit for aid shortcomings and successes, and reconcile their experience with broader beliefs towards environmental policy and climate change, all of which can inform partisan voting behavior in subsequent elections.