The New Geography of Conflict

During the Cold War, strategic planning focused on diverging ideological views between the United States and the Soviet blocs located in central and southeastern Europe and Northeast Asia. In the last decade these regions lost much strategic significance for the U.S. whereas other regions (e.g., Caspian Sea basin, the Gulf states, South China Sea) are receiving increased attention from Washington and other industrialized countries. A renewed concern of global resources, especially oil and natural gas, has created a new international, national and local geography of conflict. China and Russia have made their presence felt in key energy producing areas through foreign policy emphasis while Japan has demonstrated its concern by strengthening its fleet of warships and aircraft. Also industrializing nations of the developing world (e.g., Brazil, Malaysia, Turkey) have similar energy concerns. On a local scale conflicts have occurred over control of valuable timber, diamond fields and other export commodities. The mapping and spatial analysis of natural resources reveals that many critical sources of vital materials are located in contested or chronically unstable areas. Resource shortages and conflicts extend into other problems such as environmental degradation, transnational crime and ethnic conflicts. An analysis of global resource trends and their associated geopolitical phenomena provide policymakers with a basic tool towards resolving or reducing the risk of violent conflicts.