Acceleration mechanisms and tipping dynamics in Australia’s renewable energy transition

Abstract Non-Technical Summary Achieving sustainability and climate goals requires accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. This study explores how and why Australia’s electricity transition has accelerated in recent years. By examining developments in solar and wind technologies, policies, and public attitudes, the research uncovers the feedback mechanisms and ‘tipping points’ that have driven progress and those that now risk slowing it. The findings provide new insights for policymakers and investors seeking to sustain momentum in clean energy transitions while managing emerging social, technical, and policy challenges. Technical Summary Understanding the mechanisms that accelerate sustainability transitions is critical for achieving climate targets. This study provides new empirical insights through a socio-technical analysis of Australia’s electricity transition, focusing on wind and solar photovoltaic. Integrating theories of multi-level transitions, acceleration dynamics, and positive tipping points, we develop a taxonomy of feedback mechanisms relating to niche acceleration, regime decline, and niche deceleration. Using longitudinal analysis, process tracing, and qualitative system dynamics, we identify, categorise, and map 25 reinforcing and balancing feedbacks influencing the pace and direction of change. The analysis shows that Australia’s transition has unfolded through alternating periods of acceleration and deceleration in technology diffusion, shaped by interacting techno-economic, policy, and social actor feedbacks. Early public support and targeted policies triggered acceleration in the 2000s, while major cost reductions and industry advocacy reinforced momentum after 2016. Reinforcing feedbacks driving fossil-fuel regime decline emerged only once renewables reached a critical market share, whereas new balancing feedbacks, such as grid constraints, supply chain pressures, and policy misalignment, now present deceleration risks. The study advances understanding of acceleration dynamics by explicitly mapping causal feedback structures and revealing their sequencing, comparative strength, and cumulative effects. These insights inform adaptive policy strategies to sustain transition momentum. Social media summary Unpacking the feedbacks that are accelerating and slowing Australia’s clean energy transition.