Enhancing agricultural carbon emission efficiency has become a pivotal lever for advancing green development and high-quality transformation in agriculture. Agricultural new quality productive forces, aimed at comprehensively improving agricultural total factor productivity, provide endogenous impetus for promoting low-carbon agricultural transformation. Based on a super-efficiency SBM model, this study measures agricultural carbon emission efficiency for 30 Chinese provincial-level regions from 2011 to 2023, and employs fixed-effects, mediation, and moderation models to systematically examine the mechanisms through which agricultural new quality productive forces affect agricultural carbon emission efficiency. The results indicate that: (1) Agricultural new quality productive forces significantly enhance agricultural carbon emission efficiency. (2) Alleviating resource misallocation, promoting industrial structure upgrading, and advancing agricultural technological innovation serve as key transmission channels through which agricultural new quality productive forces improve agricultural carbon emission efficiency. (3) The level of fiscal support for agriculture exerts a positive moderating effect, such that stronger fiscal support amplifies the impact of agricultural new quality productive forces on agricultural carbon emission efficiency. (4) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the enhancement effect is more pronounced in regions with lower digital industry agglomeration and in western China. Accordingly, this study suggests strengthening policy support through an integrated approach combining technological empowerment, factor upgrading, and industrial coordination, so as to systematically foster agricultural new quality productive forces and achieve synergistic gains in agricultural carbon reduction, efficiency improvement, and green growth.
LI et al. (Thu,) studied this question.
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