Land-Use Restructuring in Quasi-Industrial Districts Under Deindustrialization: Evidence from Kitakyushu, Japan

Quasi-Industrial Districts (QIDs) in Japan allow the coexistence of industrial, residential, and commercial functions. However, under pressures such as deindustrialization, demographic decline, and urban restructuring, their functional balance has been increasingly disrupted. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of QIDs in Kitakyushu and develops a GIS-based framework to quantify changes in land-use structure. Using historical zoning and building floor-area data from 1986 to 2024, ternary diagram analysis is applied to examine relationships among the three functional types and identify transformation trajectories. Results show that while the total QID area expanded by 38.8%, internal structures changed significantly. Industry-dominant districts declined, commerce-oriented districts increased, and residential–industrial mixed types largely disappeared, indicating a shift toward commercial and residential functions. These findings reveal a growing mismatch between zoning designations and actual land use. To address this, the study proposes combining industrial concentration with clearer residential zoning, supported by periodic evaluation based on functional deviation thresholds. The framework provides a quantitative tool for adaptive land-use governance in shrinking industrial cities.