Is Ethnonationalism Growing in Ethiopia and Will it Lead to the Dissolution of the Country? Evidence from the World Value Survey 2007–2020

In this paper, I examine whether ethnopolitical identities have grown in Ethiopia since the introduction of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s reforms in 2018, using the most recent Ethiopian survey data from the World Values Survey (wave 5, from 2007 and wave 7, from 2020). I find that although there remains a general popular commitment to a national (Ethiopian) identity, among younger people (especially males) there is a growing sense of an “ethnic” identity and a growing intolerance of other ethnic groups. Further, I find that those who express ethnonational identities are significantly more likely to engage in protest and demonstrations. In conclusion, I suggest that this may not portend well for the future of Ethiopian unity. I also suggest that whether this happens also depends on the institutional transformation of the Prosperity Party (the successor the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)) and the level of external support the regime receives from its foreign benefactors.