People remember their past performance, and predict their future performance, more positively when learning easier ideas first

Beginners are often overconfident when judging their performance at a new skill. Why? One possibility is beginners draw on early experiences of fluency when recalling their past - and predicting their future - performance. We addressed this possibility in two experiments comprising three phases. First, we gave people a key piece of information: that many kanji, the Japanese language characters, look like their translation. Second, everyone guessed the translations of a series of kanji, ordered either from easiest (looks like its meaning) to hardest (looks nothing like its meaning), or the opposite. Third, everyone rated how well they performed translating those kanji, and predicted how well they would do in future scenarios requiring skill in kanji. We found people who translated easy kanji first thought they performed better guessing the translations, and were more confident in their ability at hypothetical future scenarios requiring reading kanji, such as understanding a recipe. Our findings extend our understanding of beginners' overconfidence, and have implications for teaching.