Viewpoint: Estimating the equity premium

Abstract. Finance theory restricts the time‐series behaviour of valuation ratios and links the cross‐section of stock prices to the level of the equity premium. This can be used to strengthen the evidence for predictability in stock returns. Steady‐state valuation models are useful predictors of stock returns, given the persistence in valuation ratios. A steady‐state approach suggests that the world geometric average equity premium fell considerably in the late twentieth century, rose modestly in the early years of the twenty‐first century, and was almost 4% at the end of March 2007.