The Industrial and Demographic Transitions in East Asia

A comparative study of economic growth of monsoon Asian countries since World War II reveals some striking associations between economic and demographic trends: the rapid growth of productivity and product and the sharp decline in birth rates in Japan Taiwan South Korea Hong Kong and Singapore contrast with the slower growth of productivity and product and slower decline in birth rates in the Philippines Thailand Malaysia and Indonesia. This paper reviews the record of economic growth and fertility change in these countries and speculates about the connections between the two. More specifically it attempts to relate the completion of the industrial transition to the completion of the demographic transition by conjecturing that a major force linking the two transitions in East Asia was the spread of mechanization in agriculture industry and services. It traces the impact of the mechanization process on the transition from a predominantly agricultural society to an industrial society and on forces affecting the fertility declines. The spread of secondary education as a response to the labor force requirements of mechanization and as an inducement to lower fertility is posited to be the major linkage between the two transitions. The argument is set forth in broad terms with easily available macro data in the hope that the framework and conjectures may be useful in the formulation of more specific hypotheses for testing with more detailed data especially from micro surveys. (excerpt)