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This paper presents a formal probabilistic framework for seismic design and assessment of structures and its application to steel moment-resisting frame buildings. This is the probabilistic basis for the 2000 SAC Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) steel moment frame guidelines. The framework is based on realizing a performance objective expressed as the probability of exceeding a specified performance level. Performance levels are quantified as expressions relating generic structural variables “demand” and “capacity” that are described by nonlinear, dynamic displacements of the structure. Common probabilistic analysis tools are used to convolve both the randomness and uncertainty characteristics of ground motion intensity, structural “demand,” and structural system “capacity” in order to derive an expression for the probability of achieving the specified performance level. Stemming from this probabilistic framework, a safety-checking format of the conventional “load and resistance factor” kind is developed with load and resistance terms being replaced by the more generic terms “demand” and “capacity,” respectively. This framework also allows for a format based on quantitative confidence statements regarding the likelihood of the performance objective being met. This format has been adopted in the SAC/FEMA guidelines.
Cornell et al. (Mon,) studied this question.