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The large-scale forcing associated with 20 mesoscale convective system (MCS) events has been evaluated to determine how the magnitude of that forcing influences the rainfall forecasts made with a 10-km grid spacing version of the Eta Model. Different convective parameterizations and initialization modifications were used to simulate these Upper Midwest events. Cases were simulated using both the Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterizations, and three different techniques were used to improve the initialization of mesoscale features important to later MCS evolution. These techniques included a cold pool initialization, vertical assimilation of surface mesoscale observations, and an adjustment to initialized relative humidity based on radar echo coverage. As an additional aspect in this work, a morphology analysis of the 20 MCSs was included.
Jankov et al. (Wed,) studied this question.