Mind the gap: A review of simulation designs for Qualitative Comparative Analysis

In a simulation-based analysis of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), Krogslund et al. (2015) conclude that its performance is suboptimal in several settings. I review their simulation setups and discuss three errors that were made in their analysis. First, the simulations involving inclusion thresholds are overpowered based on a misunderstanding of their role in truth table analyses. Second, the fact that a truth table analysis could exhibit model ambiguity and yield more than one model is ignored. If multiple models are derived from a truth table and they are combined into one, one overestimates the complexity of the models and underestimates their number, making it impossible to retrieve the target model of the simulation. Third, the simulations on the consequences of including irrelevant conditions intermingle sensitivity to overfitting with sensitivity to varying the inclusion thresholds. A reconsideration of KCP’s simulations correcting for the errors confirms some of their findings, but also reveals that some of those errors lead to an underestimation of QCA’s robustness. On a broader level, the review underscores that simulations are useful for the evaluation of QCA, but that simulation designs need to match QCA’s mechanics and principles to produce valid conclusions about its performance.