Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Malawi

This study examines climate change impacts on water resources in the African country of Malawi. Downscaled outputs from six general circulation models, for the most extreme Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), were used as inputs to the soil and water assessment tool to assess the impacts of climate change on evapotranspiration, surface runoff, water yield, and soil moisture content at the country, watershed, and subbasin levels by the 2050s. At the country level, the results showed a –5.4% to +24.6% change in annual rainfall, a −5.0% to +3.1% change in annual evapotranspiration, from –7.5% to over +50% change in annual surface runoff and water yield, and up to an 11.5% increase in annual soil moisture. At the watershed level, results showed an increase in annual rainfall and evapotranspiration in the north and a gradual decline towards the south. Subbasin-level analysis showed a large probability of increase in the annual precipitation, surface runoff, water yield, and soil moisture, especially in the north. Overall, the northern region was found to be more prone to floods, while the southern region was found to be more prone to droughts. On a positive note, more precipitation in the north can provide more opportunity for agricultural production.