Each 1-point increment in the HATCH score was associated with a significantly increased risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation (HR 2.059) in a large Taiwanese cohort.
Cohort (n=670,804)
Does the HATCH score predict new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients without a history of cardiac arrhythmias?
The HATCH score is a useful clinical tool for estimating the individual risk of developing new-onset atrial fibrillation in Asian patients.
Effect estimate: HR 2.059 (95% CI 2.027-2.093)
p-value: p=<0.001
The HATCH score (hypertension , age >75 years , stroke or transient ischemic attack , chronic obstructive pulmonary disease , and heart failure ) was reported to be useful for predicting the progression of atrial fibrillation (AF) from paroxysmal to persistent or permanent AF for patients who participated in the Euro Heart Survey. The goal of the current study was to investigate whether the HATCH score was a useful scheme in predicting new-onset AF. Furthermore, we aimed to use the HATCH scoring system to estimate the individual risk in developing AF for patients with different comorbidities. We used the "Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database." From January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2001, a total of 670,804 patients older than 20 years old and who had no history of cardiac arrhythmias were enrolled. According to the calculation rule of the HATCH score, 599,780 (score 0), 46,661 (score 1), 12,892 (score 2), 7456 (score 3), 2944 (score 4), 802 (score 5), 202 (score 6), and 67 (score 7) patients were studied and followed for the new onset of AF. During a follow-up of 9.0 ± 2.2 years, there were 9174 (1.4%) patients experiencing new-onset AF. The incidence of AF was 1.5 per 1000 patient-years. The incidence increased from 0.8 per 1000 patient-years for patients with a HATCH score of 0 to 57.3 per 1000 patient-years for those with a HATCH score of 7. After an adjustment for the gender and comorbidities, the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of each increment of the HATCH score in predicting AF was 2.059 (2.027-2.093; P < 0.001). The HATCH score was useful in risk estimation and stratification of new-onset AF.
Suenari et al. (Sun,) conducted a cohort in No history of cardiac arrhythmias (n=670,804). HATCH score increment vs. HATCH score 0 was evaluated on New-onset atrial fibrillation (HR 2.059, 95% CI 2.027-2.093, p=<0.001). Each 1-point increment in the HATCH score was associated with a significantly increased risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation (HR 2.059) in a large Taiwanese cohort.