Predicting the Evolution and Dynamics of Herbicide Resistance in Weed Populations

Herbicide resistance jeopardizes the usefulness of valuable chemical tools and, therefore, weed management in many crop systems. Models must be developed to evaluate management tactics that prevent, delay, or reduce resistance. The complexity of biological processes involved in herbicide resistance also requires models to focus research and to integrate experiments. A population model was developed that improves upon previous attempts to predict herbicide resistance dynamics. The model incorporates plant population demographics with the Hardy-Weinberg concept for gene segregation. The model simulates the evolution, spread, and subsequent dynamics of resistance in the presence and absence of a herbicide. Analysis of model simulations identified two sets of biological processes as key factors in the evolution and dynamics of herbicide-resistant weed populations. These are processes that influence ecological fitness and gene flow. Several options are suggested as examples for the management of resistant weed populations.