Potential distribution of three invasive agricultural pests in China under climate change

Abstract Invasive pests reduce biodiversity and ecosystem service functions, thereby leading to economic and environmental losses and human health issues. Erionota torus Evans, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus, and Opisina arenosella are invasive insect pests in the palm-growing regions of China. Their future distribution patterns are unknown. The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential distribution dynamics of these three invasive species. Results indicate that the suitable habitat area of E. torus Evans remains relatively stable with some expansion in the SSP126 of 2081–2100 and some contraction in the SSP585 of 2081–2100. The suitable habitat area of R. ferrugineus showed an overall contraction, with substantial contraction in the SSP585 of 2081–2100. The suitable habitat area of O. arenosella has an overall expansion, with the most pronounced expansion in the SSP585 of 2061–2080. Human disturbance factors, temperature, and precipitation were crucial variables for describing the distribution of the three species. O. arenosella shows an expanding trend, requiring improved prevention and control management measures. E. torus shows a inconsistent trend, which need to strengthen dynamic monitoring and prevent recurrence. These findings provide information that could aid in the spatial management and effective control of other invasive insects in China.