Turkey will face a long-term refugee problem

Significance The EU has committed billions of euros to help Turkey deal with the impact of those refugees, but EU auditors said on April 24 that they could not determine the impact of that aid. Meanwhile, refugees and migration policies did not prove decisive in determining the outcome of the March 31 municipal elections, which showed the economy is now top priority for many. Impacts The government’s tight control over the media will shape the migration debate. Fear of a refugee influx to European shores will incentivise the EU to continue to extend aid to Ankara. The AKP could exploit the presence of the refugees to boost its standing among more nationalist segments of the population.