GHG emissions estimation and assessment of Pakistan's power sector: A roadmap towards low carbon future

Growing population, burgeoning economic growth and technological advancements have caused a surge in electricity demand worldwide. In recent years, Pakistan, contributing less than 1% to global greenhouse gas emissions, has endured severe weather, including the 2022 floods that affected nearly 30 million people. Pakistan is a developing country and signatory of Paris accord has made an international commitment to cut down its GHG emissions. To date, the total electricity generation of Pakistan is about 122,934 GWh, from which 60.9% (744,862 GWh) is met by thermal sources (coal, oil gas), 23.7% (29,181 GWh) by hydel, 12.4% (15,182 GWh) by nuclear and 3% (3709 GWh) of electricity generation is done through renewable energy sources. The demand for electricity in Pakistan is rising exponentially, and around 60.9% is fulfilled by hydrocarbons. This study introduces a novel approach by assessing the electricity sector's GHG emissions using CO2, CH4, and N2O, expanding beyond the traditional focus on CO2 alone. This work uses a time-varying carbon intensity approach to calculate the GHG emissions and, subsequently, carbon intensity from fossil fuel-driven electrical systems. One notable aspect of this approach is its capability to calculate GHG emissions and carbon intensity with a more frequent temporal resolution, frequently. The peak GHG emissions are observed in January and December at values 650gCO2-eq/kWh and 550gCO2-eq/kWh respectively, causing smog issues in the country. Results show that the carbon intensity in Pakistan during January, February, October, November and December is relatively higher due to unavailability of hydel resources.