A geospatial perspective towards the role of migratory birds and poultry in the spread of Avian Influenza

Abstract The unprecedented spread of H5N1 2.3.4.4b since 2020 has resulted in widespread infection in a wider range of avian and mammalian species, raising concerns of a human pandemic. The epidemiologic pattern has shifted from sporadic to persistent, with a shift from Asia to Europe, the Americas and Africa. Cattle farms are now affected in the United States of America. The reason for this spread is unknown. This study investigates the interplay between wild bird migrations, global poultry trading, and the Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) spread, particularly the H5N1 strain, from 2020 to 2023. By examining the migratory behaviors of selected wild birds, we investigated their role in AIV spread, as these birds traverse major flyways from the northern hemisphere to the southern hemisphere, potentially spreading AIV. Concurrently, we analyzed the global poultry trade data to assess its role in AIV's anthropogenic spread, highlighting how human economic activities intersect with natural avian behaviors in disease dynamics. Our findings indicate that both the poultry sector and wild bird migrations significantly contribute to AIV transmission, which helps better understand AIV transmission mechanisms when combined with ecological, epidemiological, and socio-economic perspectives. The results are intended to inform policy-making and strategic planning in wildlife conservation and the poultry trade to improve public health and animal welfare globally.