In 2023, China's economic growth exhibited an unexpected fluctuating pattern, marked by relative insufficiency in growth across the demand side, encompassing investment, consumption, and exports. Moreover, challenges stemming from geopolitical and global trends posed hurdles for China's international cooperation, exports, and foreign investment. To compound matters, the accumulation of domestic cyclical and structural contradictions created bottlenecks in the overall economic cycle, further hindering the nation's recovery. In light of these economic challenges and weaknesses, this thesis analyzes the reasons behind the sluggish economic recovery in China from both international and domestic perspectives. Based on this analysis, it delves into the direction and key points of the central economic policies for 2024, and further clarifies three policy measures to achieve economic development goals, including the feasibility of political means and the superiority of institutional characteristics. The conclusions drawn are as follows: It is expected that the economic growth rate in 2024 will exceed 5%, with the GDP growth target for the 14th Five-Year Plan period expected to be around 5.5% annually. Under an active fiscal policy, it is anticipated that the growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2024 will significantly increase, while the consumption growth rate is slowing down, requiring strong policy measures to restore expectations. Additionally, influenced by geopolitical factors, national security has become an important consideration, and exports may continue to face challenges. The analysis and conclusions of this paper provide a deep insight and theoretical development experience support for the better development of the Chinese economy.
Chao Li (Fri,) studied this question.