Estimating Thaw Settlement of Coarse-Grained Permafrost Sediments

Thaw settlement, a frequently reported issue for infrastructure built on permafrost, contributes to high maintenance costs, reduced life cycles, and compromised serviceability of infrastructure. This paper presents a new method to estimate the thaw settlement in coarse-grained permafrost sediments, crucial for northern infrastructure planning. Utilizing available test results from the Canadian Arctic, an overview of the existing data for coarse-grained permafrost sediments is presented. The proposed method uses input parameters derived from particle size distribution to estimate the minimum void ratio of thawed sediments. The minimum void ratio is then used to infer the thawed void ratio, enabling the calculation of thaw strain. The effectiveness of the approach is confirmed by validating predicted thaw strains against measured values for over 60 permafrost samples. A comparison with existing empirical methods shows improved accuracy and reduced bias, further supporting the applicability of the approach. Additionally, an average thawed void ratio assigned to seven groups of granular soils proved valuable for predicting thaw strain when only visual descriptions of sediments are available. Tailored for granular materials and utilizing easily obtainable index properties, this approach provides a reliable and cost-effective method for predicting thaw settlement, benefiting engineers and planners in infrastructure development.