Modeling the Abrasive Index from Mineralogical and Calorific Properties Using Tree-Based Machine Learning: A Case Study on the KwaZulu-Natal Coalfield

Accurate prediction of the coal abrasive index (AI) is critical for optimizing coal processing efficiency and minimizing equipment wear in industrial applications. This study explores tree-based machine learning models; Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Trees (GBT), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) to predict AI using selected coal properties. A database of 112 coal samples from the KwaZulu-Natal Coalfield in South Africa was used. Initial predictions using all eight input properties revealed suboptimal testing performance (R2: 0.63–0.72), attributed to outliers and noisy data. Feature importance analysis identified calorific value, quartz, ash, and Pyrite as dominant predictors, aligning with their physicochemical roles in abrasiveness. After data cleaning and feature selection, XGBoost achieved superior accuracy (R2 = 0.92), outperforming RF (R2 = 0.85) and GBT (R2 = 0.81). The results highlight XGBoost’s robustness in modeling non-linear relationships between coal properties and AI. This approach offers a cost-effective alternative to traditional laboratory methods, enabling industries to optimize coal selection, reduce maintenance costs, and enhance operational sustainability through data-driven decision-making. Additionally, quartz and Ash content were identified as the most influential parameters on AI using the Cosine Amplitude technique, while calorific value had the least impact among the selected features.