Delay Discounting Predicts Restraint in a Laboratory Model of Smoking Abstinence

Most cigarette smokers say that they want to quit, but few attempts at smoking cessation are successful. To examine factors predicting the ability to quit, researchers have examined various behaviors. Heightened delay discounting, preference for smaller, sooner rewards over larger, later rewards, has been associated with a heightened probability of relapse. The current study examined whether this extended to short-term laboratory-based smoking lapse protocols, and whether probability discounting (preference for smaller, certain rewards over larger, uncertain rewards) showed similar effects. Participants were 32 adult smokers contemplating cessation, who attended two experimental sessions. Tasks required participants to choose between money available now and either 25 available later (0-365 days) or with less certainty (0-100%). Participants were then given a 2-hour window when they could either smoke or receive progressively more money over time. Time before smoking was recorded as their “lapse time”. Steeper delay discounting predicted shorter lapse times, while probability discounting was unrelated. These data suggest that delay discounting may be related to the inability to maintain abstinence over short time periods not just days and weeks during smoking cessation, thereby contributing to heightened smoking associated with heightened delay discounting. They also support the independence of probability discounting from substance use phenotypes.